Job Openings - The Future

Job openings stem from both employment growth and replacement needs.  Replacement needs arise as workers leave occupations. Some transfer to other occupations while others retire, return to school, or quit to assume household responsibilities. Replacement needs are projected to account for 60 percent of the approximately 58 million job openings between 2000 and 2010. Thus, even occupations with little or no change in employment still may offer many job openings.

Professional and related occupations are projected to grow faster and add more jobs than any other major occupational group, with 7 million new jobs by 2010. Three-fourths of this job growth is expected among computer and mathematical occupations; healthcare practitioners and technical occupations; and education, training, and library occupations. With 5.2 million job openings due to replacement needs, professional and related occupations are the only major group projected to generate more openings from job growth than from replacement needs.

Due to high replacement needs, service occupations are projected to have the largest number of total job openings, 13.5 million. A large number of replacements are expected to arise as young workers leave food preparation and service occupations. Replacement needs generally are greatest in the largest occupations and in those with relatively low pay or limited training requirements.

Office automation will significantly affect many individual office and administrative support occupations. Overall, these occupations are projected to grow more slowly than the average, while some are projected to decline. Office and administrative support occupations are projected to create 7.7 million job openings over the 2000-10 period, ranking third behind service and professional and related occupations.

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing occupations are projected to have the fewest job openings, approximately 500,000. Because job growth is expected to be slow, and levels of retirement and job turnover high, more than 80 percent of these projected job openings are due to replacement needs.

Employment in occupations requiring an associate degree is projected to increase 32 percent, faster than any other occupational group categorized by education or training. However, this category ranks only eighth among the 11 education and training categories in terms of job openings. The largest number of job openings will be among occupations requiring short--term on-the-job training.

Almost two-thirds of the projected job openings over the 2000-10 period will be in occupations that require on-the-job training, and arise mostly from replacement needs. These jobs will account for 37.3 million of the projected 57.9 million total job openings through 2010. However, many of these jobs typically offer low pay and benefits; this is more true of jobs requiring only short-term on-the-job training, which will account for 24.8 million openings, than of the occupations in any other education or training category.

Jobs requiring a bachelor's degree, and which usually offer higher pay and benefits, will account for about 7.3 million job openings through 2010. Most of these openings will result from job growth.